2024 Grains, oilseeds and pulses sector outlook: Falling commodity prices will pressure margins

Falling input prices feature in the 2023-24 and the 2024-25 crop years, partially offsetting lower prices for many ag commodities. There’ll be more margin pressure, especially for Western crops, than the sector has seen recently. This year, we’ll be watching global stocks-to-use ratios, global weather forecasts and equipment costs as three significant influences on crop profitability.

Commodity prices for the 2023-24 marketing year (MY) have fallen year-over-year (YoY), but for corn, spring wheat, and feed barley, they may already have bottomed out (Table 1). Canadian feed barley prices have been pressured by the availability of relatively cheap U.S. corn and lack of export demand and Canada’s barley carryout is expected to be in line with the five-year average. However, low supplies due to drought-related yield reductions on the prairies will help to boost prices for the new MY and keep them well above the five-year average.


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