2025 Broiler and egg outlook: Headwinds combined with optimism

When assessing the outlook for broiler and egg production in 2025, we need to consider the likely slowdown in population growth and the impact that will have on demand. Despite this, there are reasons to be bullish on the sector in 2025. Recent outbreaks of avian flu pose a risk to production (and to consumer price spikes), however record egg production has positioned the sector well to manage short-term supply disruptions. We break it all down in our 2025 broiler and egg outlook.

Setting the stage for 2025

Before turning our attention to 2025, let’s quickly reassess 2024. In our August poultry blog we noted the USDA estimated 2024 Canadian broiler production growth to be 1.7% for 2024. Since that time, the organization has revised that number even lower to 1.0% growth.

We find this estimate hard to believe. First, population growth as of July 1, 2024, was 3.0% higher than it was compared to July 1, 2023. Knowing this, per capita consumption of chicken would need to fall -1.3% for the USDA’s calculation to pencil out. Declines in per capita consumption of chicken have been very rare historically. For example, a -1.3% decline would be the largest decline since 2011 (outside of the shock of 2020). Additionally, slaughter volumes year-to-date (up to and including November) were up 2.2% compared to 2023. Statistics Canada will soon be publishing 2024 results, and we expect those to show production growth of about 2.5%, higher than the USDA’s estimate.

What kind of demand for chicken will there be in 2025?

Production levels are set to meet expected domestic demand. Therefore, to understand production growth, it’s important to understand the domestic demand outlook and the state of the Canadian consumer heading into 2025.

The first thing to note is that population growth is set to slow in 2025 – we’re just not sure at what rate. The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates a decline of -0.2%. Statistics Canada produces a wide range of population growth scenarios. Their lowest-growth scenario projects a decline of -0.9% while their highest-growth scenario projects growth of 1.5%. The Bank of Canada projects an average growth rate of 1.7% over the next two years.

So, what’s the implication of slower (or even negative) population growth for broiler production growth? While it’s certainly not a positive indication, there are a couple reasons we’re still bullish on chicken demand in 2025.

One reason is protein-price competitiveness. All major protein types have seen dramatic price increases since November 2020: retail chicken prices increased 24%, retail pork prices rose 14%, and retail beef prices rose a whopping 39%. However, feed prices peaked in early 2023 and continued to ease throughout 2024. These feed price declines put downward pressure on the farmgate minimum live price for broilers and, later on down the supply chain, retail chicken prices. Since the beginning of 2024, retail chicken prices have actually declined -3.7% while pork (+2.2%) and beef (+9.6%) have increased (Figure 1). We expect retail chicken prices to remain competitive in 2025 as feed costs should remain low given the glut of U.S. corn available.

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