2025 Hog outlook: Recovery under threat due to potential trade barriers

If you squint hard at the year ahead and ignore outside influences – things look positive for the 2025 hog sector in Canada. Hog futures prices are strong, exports of market hogs and isoweans have been flowing to the U.S., and feed costs are lower than just a few years ago, all of which are leading to improved margins. However, domestic demand continues to soften, and the dual threat of tariffs and voluntary country of origin labelling (VCOOL) remain. With lots of writing about these already, we will dig into what margins could look like if tariffs are enacted and what the Canadian and global demand for pork looks like.

A weaker Canadian dollar and strong U.S. hog futures are contributing to the increased price forecast for the year ahead for producers across Canada, sitting above the 5-year average (Table 1). Any further depreciation of the Canadian dollar will provide a boost to hog prices received by farmers but may also raise costs of feed grains. We estimate that a 1% depreciation of the dollar increases hog farm cash receipts by about 0.6%. The baseline price forecast does not include the impact of tariffs.

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