Agriculture in a changing climate

At the heart of the agriculture industry are coffee shops where farmers gather to chat. I believe the unwritten rule is to start every meeting with a discussion about the weather. There is a reason for that. While there are many factors, the weather plays a large part in the success of the agriculture industry, and Canada’s agriculture industry is susceptible to climate change. The earth is warming, and many experts agree that we will continue to see more extreme weather events and warmer temperatures. The Aquanomics model by GHD, a global engineering and architecture service firm, projects a loss of $108 billion to the Canadian GDP from 2022 to 2050 caused by droughts, floods, and storms. Flooding could cost the economy $30 billion by 2050. The model predicts that manufacturing and distribution will be the hardest hit at $50 billion in total output losses, with agriculture 5th on the list at $3 billion in output losses by 2050. Regardless of the economic impact, the agriculture industry could be in for some changes, which is nothing new.

Impact to Production

The impacts to the agriculture industry could be numerous and will present challenges as well as opportunities. It is predicted that high-latitude countries such as Canada will see more warming than the global average. This is in part due to more southern locations already being ice-free. Land is less reflective than ice, so there will be more change as ice melts in northern regions. The table below shows a few of the potential impacts.

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