On the radar: Trends in U.S. ag and food that could impact Canada in 2025

There’s an old adage that says, “when the U.S. sneezes, Canada catches a cold.” This is undoubtably true in the ag and food sectors. And while there has been plenty of speculation about what the outcome of November’s U.S. elections could mean for ag and food policy, there are topics to monitor that will be of importance regardless of the results. In this week’s blog, we focus on three top trends to monitor in U.S. ag and food and what it could mean for Canada.

To what degree will consumers demand ‘made in the USA’ products?

In the spring, the USDA announced a final ruling on voluntary country of original labelling (vCOOL) for beef and pork products. In essence, the ruling says that, starting January 1, 2026, meat processors who display a “Product of USA” label on their beef and pork must only use animals that are born and raised in the U.S. Currently, meat processors in the U.S. are allowed to import Canadian animals, raise and/or slaughter them, and use a “Product of USA” label. It's the latest in a two-decades long saga on country of original labelling for beef and pork products. vCOOL’s predecessor – mandatory country of original labelling (mCOOL) – was repealed in 2015.

At first blush vCOOL seems less worrisome than mCOOL given the voluntary nature of the requirements. However, Canada will face difficulties exporting livestock to the U.S. For example, Canada sends about four million piglets (less than seven kilograms in weight and 21 days old) to the U.S. annually; so, while these hogs would spend most of their life in the U.S., they wouldn’t qualify for a “Product of USA” label under vCOOL.

Industry sources are indicating that some processors could begin enforcing the rules by mid-2025. While we don’t expect this to be the end of livestock exports (Figure 1), the impacts could be significant. Basis levels (the difference between the cash price received and futures prices) for live cattle and hog exports are likely to widen and exports of processed meat products could face headwinds. Hog producers could face greater pressures given the decline in domestic processing capacity and increased reliance on U.S. access for slaughter. Quantifying the potential costs of vCOOL is challenging at this point but the WTO ruled the impact of mCOOL (in terms of foregone revenue) was over $1 billion USD annually when it was in effect.

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