Potential trade disruptions dampen strong cattle outlook

The cattle market continues to reach new highs. Canadian cattle operations after prolonged periods of drought and expensive feed ended last year optimistic about 2025. Cattle prices are record high, feed availability has increased and feed costs are easing.

Even with record high cattle prices and strong profitability, the Canadian beef herd in 2024 reached a three-decade low, while the number of replacement heifers was near an all-time low. The U.S. herd is in a similar situation as cow numbers declined through 2024, which were reflected in the January 1, 2025, beef herd estimate of 73.4 million head. We’re expecting a drop in the Canadian cattle herd as well.

As we outlined in our top trends to monitor in 2025, cow and heifer slaughter rates will need to decline below 47% of slaughters before we are likely to see any herd growth. We expect some easing of the number of heifers heading to slaughter but not enough to rebuild the herd. Overall, the small North American cattle herd is expected to continue driving prices, leading to yet another year of strong cow-calf profitability in 2025 (Table 1).

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