What does 2024’s challenging weather mean for 2025 grain and oilseed prices?

This year’s growing season in Canada, and particularly the prairies, was a real roller coaster. Farmers had to come to grips with the lower prices the 2023/24 marketing year brought along while facing challenging weather. Our July outlook highlighted the issues the Western crop was facing as it turned dry during pollination while Eastern Canada was having a better summer with higher yield potential. With most crops in the bin, we look at the year ahead and what could impact expected prices.

New marketing year prices are largely under the average of the past five years

In the 2023/24 marketing year, producers had to reduce their sales price expectations. For several years, prices have generally been higher than, and boosting, the 5-year average. However, new crop prices have now mostly fallen below their 5-year averages (Table 1) but remain well above pre-pandemic levels. In the upcoming marketing year, only feed barley and peas are expected to surpass their 5-year averages. Overall, in the three months since our July outlook, price forecasts have remained relatively stable.

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